US, Israel and India unleashing their firepower and economic power has backfired, writes Taha Coburn-Kutay
I understand two languages in which world matters are defined — politics and economics. In the recent past, the US wanted to dominate China and started the trade war, fortunately, or unfortunately which it is losing, depending on which side of the prism you look.
Before that India took the step of abrogation of Article 370, obviously with the backing of the US. This nexus also includes Israel which has been the steering captain of the ship with the help of Jared Kushner. He is the key person in getting US, Israel, and India together.
Unleashing the firepower and economic power for all three countries has backfired. You will wonder how?
First, the failure of the US in bringing stability in South America has created chaos in Venezuela and Guyana. Venezuela is on the boil because the US wants to cripple its economy although Venezuela has new-found oil reserves greater than the Gulf.
Similarly, Guayana has new-found oil reserves which are also greater than of the Gulf. Now, you must wonder why did the US decide to pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan, obviously to focus their energies on Venezuela to destabilize it and take control of Guyana.
Exxon Mobil has already started drilling and pulling crude offshore Guyana. In the recent election, the socialist party lost creating havoc in Guyana and no stable government is in place. Although every citizen of Guyana is supposed to receive $5000 per annum as royalty for the new-found oil.
Now, you will wonder why is the same package not available to Venezuela because it’s under sanctions and cannot sell oil. The nexus behind Venezuela is Russia, China and Iran. If you look up the oil indices you will see that Venezuelan crude when mixed with Iran crude makes a very sweet mix, not in the literal terms but oil terms. If we start putting two and two together, my theory of politics and economics starts making sense. When tensions arose between Iran and Saudi Arabia, who was called to the table to defuse the situation, it was Pakistan. You will wonder why it was because Pakistan enjoys a healthy relationship with Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, and Iran.
Although the black sheep in this sequence is Saudi Arabia. The strategic importance of Pakistan for China, Russia, and Iran is of utmost importance. We are oblivious to this reason which is CPEC. This is the background to what I’m about to tell you.
We fast forward to the situation when Covid-19 started making the news in late 2019. It was at this time I had started to see the strategy which was going to be employed by China to change the geography of the region. I will substantiate this by a similar situation in the mid-eighties but with economic strength. At this time Pakistan was economically stronger than India and had the full backing of the US because of the Afghan war. On the other hand, India was weak and overcoming the death of Indira Gandhi. Pakistan taking advantage of the situation launched the operation in Kashmir to change the demography and geography of the region, which is still suffering. India’s foreign reserves were as low as a billion dollars and it couldn’t afford to fight Pakistan openly also knowing Pakistan had the backing of the US.
Fast forward to 2019 and the whole equation had changed. Pakistan was economically weak not even a billion dollars in reserves with no back of the US. Whereas India economically strong and had the backing of the US, abrogated article 370.
This is when China and Pakistan came to terms and to the table to strategize a situation whether knowing or unknowingly that this calamity of a pandemic is coming. In a matter of months, India has become economically weak and politically unstable, if you are following Indian politics closely.
China, on the other hand, has made more billionaires in the Covid-19 situation than in normal times. This is where China has struck and in my opinion, will not back down. India in the next two weeks will overtake the world in both Covid cases and deaths.
The government has no idea how to kick start the economy and this will lead to more political instability. China will increase the pressure and may open two more fronts in eastern India from the state of Arunachal Pradesh and on the western front to Gilgit, Baltistan. India doesn’t have the firepower or money to support this kind of an adventure, hence this might lead to the change on geography in this part of the world forever.
At this time do not forgot your beloved Saudi Arabia because it is hatching a plan with Israel and the US to start an adventure with Iran. Iran is facing a second wave of Covid and its worse than the first wave. This is giving further strength to Saudi Arabia to plan the adventure which may lead to geography being changed in the middle east but to the contrary of Saudi Arabia losing ground.
You all are seeing what is happening in the US although I cannot see a geographical or territorial change but there is an immense mind/psychological change coming in the US. This second time around I cannot see Trump win whereas the last time my prediction was spot on.
Israel is another day’s topic.
The world is going to see a lot of changes so we should all be prepared.
(Disclaimer: Opinion expressed within this article are the personal opinion of the author)